墨西哥登革热病的趋势和周期性模式:40年时间序列分析
Jaime Briseno-Ramirez1, Judith Carolina De Arcos-Jiménez2, Ana María López-Yáñez2
1Hospital Civil de Oriente, Nuevo periferico oriente s/n, C.P, Tónala, Jalisco 45425, Mexico.
Annals of epidemiology
|November 4, 2025
概括
墨西哥的登革热病例正在长期上升,周期约为5年. 最近DENV-3的流行与住院病例的增加相关,突显了综合监测的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 载体传播疾病 载体传播疾病
背景情况:
- 登革热在墨西哥是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解长期趋势和周期性模式对于有效控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1985年到2025年,量化墨西哥登革热发病率的长期趋势和多年周期.
- 检查最近的登革热病毒血清型分布和相关的严重程度模式.
主要方法:
- 利用国家监测数据 (1985-2025) 并应用时间序列分析 (STL分解,过,光谱分析).
- 评估时间静止和地理变化 (沿海与内陆).
- 分析了血清型分布和住院数据 (2020-2025).
主要成果:
- 确定超过170万估计登革热病例,每年增加约1275例.
- 揭示了跨区域和时间窗口持续的一致多年振荡 (峰值~5.8年).
- 自2023年以来观察到DENV-3的主导地位,与更高的住院率相吻合.
结论:
- 墨西哥的登革热呈现出明显的上升趋势和可重现的5年周期.
- 将循环意识基线与血清型监测相结合,可以改善预警系统和载体控制向.
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