越来越多的极端风力挑战了海上风力能源的弹性
Yanan Zhao1,2,3, Yiheng Tao4, Yuntian Chen5,6
1School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
Nature communications
|November 4, 2025
概括
气候变化正在全球范围内增加极端风速,影响海上风能基础设施. 这项研究揭示了50年回归周期风速 (U50) 的上升,需要适应性轮机设计以实现未来的弹性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 可再生能源工程可再生能源工程
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 海上风能系统面临着气候变化放大极端风的日益严重威胁.
- 轮机的弹性取决于50年回归周期的风速 (U50),这是一个关键的设计参数.
- 海洋U50的长期趋势和空间变异性在很大程度上仍未得到研究.
研究的目的:
- 研究海洋50年回归周期风速 (U50) 的全球长期趋势和空间变异性.
- 评估风力极端变化对现有和计划的海上风电场的影响.
- 突出了对适应性海上风能基础设施的需求.
主要方法:
- 从1940年到2023年在海拔100米处利用每小时的ERA5风速数据.
- 分析了全球海洋中U50的长期趋势和空间模式.
- 与海上风电场位置和旋风活动相关联的U50趋势.
主要成果:
- 观察到海洋U50在0.016 m s-1 yr-1 (p < 0.01) 的全球显著增加.
- 在62.85%的沿海地区确定了U50上升趋势.
- 发现超过40%的亚洲和欧洲海上风电场已经超过了III类轮机设计门 (37.5m s-1),其中许多地区的U50趋势与旋风活动有关.
结论:
- 由于气候变化,海洋50年回归周期风速 (U50) 正在全球范围内增加.
- 很大一部分海上风电场对当前和未来的极端风力非常脆弱.
- 迫切需要对海上风能基础设施进行调整,以应对不断变化的风力条件.
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