使用MaxEnt在变化的气候制度下,对印度的Spodoptera frugiperda扩张进行空间预测
Kalirajan Murugasridevi1, V S Manivasagam2, Sudheesh Manalil3,4
1Amrita School of Agricultural Sciences, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, J. P. Nagar, Arasampalayam, Coimbatore, 642109, India. k_murugasridevi@cb.amrita.edu.
Scientific reports
|November 4, 2025
概括
秋季军虫 (FAW) 是一种入侵性害虫,由于气候变化,它正在扩大其在印度的范围. 了解它的传播对于保护作物和确保粮食安全至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
- 侵入性物种 生态学 生态学
背景情况:
- 秋季军虫 (Spodoptera frugiperda) 是一种严重的入侵性害虫,威胁着全球粮食安全,尤其是草作物.
- 包括气候和宿主植物分布 (玉米) 在内的非生物因素对FAW的生存,发展和地理传播产生了重大影响.
- FAW是印度最近的入侵者,需要了解其在不断变化的气候条件下潜在的扩张.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的气候变化情景,预测秋季军 (FAW) 在印度的潜在分布.
- 确定影响FAW分布和适用性的关键环境预测因素.
- 为印度开发气候适应性害虫管理策略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt建模方法来预测FAW分布.
- 纳入了来自BCC-CSM2-MR和MIROC6模型的CMIP6气候预测.
- 雇员共享社会经济路径 (SSP126和SSP585) 模拟未来的气候场景.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型表现出高的预测准确性 (AUC>0.85,TSS=0.59).
- 年度温度范围 (Bio7) 和玉米分布被确定为FAW适合性的最有影响力的预测因素.
- 目前,印度40.5%的地区适合FAW,南部和东部地区的适合性很高. 到2030年的预测表明,适合地区的变化很小,中部和东北部地区的增长可能会出现,尽管由于热应力而导致一些最佳区域的缩小.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将改变印度FAW的分布,对农业构成越来越大的风险.
- 特定的气候变量和玉米分布是FAW地理范围的关键决定因素.
- 该研究为主动,气候适应性害虫管理策略提供了必要的数据,以减轻FAW对印度农业的影响.
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