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评估迈阿密的奇孔古尼亚疫情规模和紧急疫苗接种策略:一个探索性建模研究

A M de Roo^1,2, M Boer³, G T Vondeling⁴

¹Unit of Global Health, Department of Health Sciences, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands. a.m.de.roo@rug.nl.

BMC public health

|November 4, 2025

概括

奇孔古尼亚病毒 (CHIKV) 疫情在迈阿密全年可能发生,与蚊子种群相关的风险更高. 紧急疫苗接种可以显著减少疫情的规模,特别是更高的蚊子对人类的比率.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
数学建模的数学建模
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

奇孔古尼亚病毒 (CHIKV) 由于病媒传播的疾病扩散,构成了日益严重的全球威胁.
迈阿密-戴德县是极易受到CHIKV的感染,原因是当地特有的Aedes aegypti蚊子和国际旅行.
在2024年,全球报告了近50万个奇昆古尼亚病例.

研究的目的:

为了模拟CHIKV疫情在迈阿密城市的潜在影响.
评估紧急疫苗接种作为预防策略的有效性.

主要方法:

开发了一个具有SEIR-SEI结构的动态矢量主机模型.
场景包括不同的载体-宿主比率 (VHR) 和疫苗接种覆盖率.
紧急疫苗接种被模拟为疫情应对措施.

主要成果:

迈阿密的CHIKV传播可以全年发生,从5月到8月达到顶峰.
疫情发生的可能性和规模强烈依赖于VHR.
紧急疫苗接种减少了19%-58%的爆发规模,覆盖率为10%,取决于VHR.

结论:

探索性建模为迈阿密的CHIKV爆发动态和缓解策略提供了洞察力.
紧急疫苗接种可以成为减少 chikungunya 疫情影响的有效工具.
这一框架有助于在亚热带地区为奇昆古尼亚做好准备.

关键词:

艾滋病病毒 (Aedes Aedes) 是一种病毒.这是一个 Chikungunya.数学的建模数学建模疫情爆发的原因是疫苗接种疫苗接种媒介性疾病媒介性疾病是由载体传播的疾病.

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