超科学复制项目使用透明psi项目程序的高级超实验协议来测试Bem声称的预认知效应
Jan Walleczek1,2, Nikolaus von Stillfried1,2, Stefan Schmidt3,4
1Phenoscience Laboratories, Berlin, Germany.
PloS one
|November 5, 2025
概括
这项研究使用先进的方法研究了预知,在大多数试验中没有发现证据. 一项研究显示了轻微的影响,但没有复制,这表明了潜在的统计异常.
科学领域:
- 超级科学是一种科学.
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 帕拉心理学 帕拉心理学
背景情况:
- 心理学中的可复制性危机.
- 贝姆的 (2011) 有争议的预知实验.
- 需要严格的方法来防止虚假发现.
研究的目的:
- 严格测试Bem预知效应的可复制性.
- 采用先进的超实验协议 (AMP) 和透明的psi项目 (TPP) 程序.
- 为了减少确认偏差,不透明度和测量偏差的风险.
主要方法:
- 三项复制研究,涉及超过26,000名参与者和420,000项试验.
- 结合AMP-TPP测试策略,以提高严格度.
- 结果的探索性和确认性分析.
主要成果:
- 第1项研究未能复制预认知效应.
- 第二项研究显示了小的,相反方向的效应 (49.65%),从探索性分析中复制.
- 第三项研究未能复制第二项研究的发现,结果接近偶然 (50.07%).
结论:
- 贝姆 (2011) 声称的预认知效应没有可靠地复制.
- 研究2中的异常结果可能是由于缺乏可复制性和理论基础而导致的方法衍生异常 (错误阳性).
- 先进的强度增强策略提高了弱效研究的可靠性.
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