在COVID-19大流行期间预测老年人的心理性:一种机器学习方法
Xiaoling Xiang1, Xuan Lu2, Xiwen Guan3
1School of Social Work, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States.
The Gerontologist
|November 5, 2025
概括
心理倾向,社会联系和技术适应显著预测了老年人在COVID-19大流行期间的性. 这些发现突显了多因素的性,并为公共卫生战略提供了信息.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,老年人面临着心理弹性方面的独特挑战.
- 了解性预测因素对于开发有针对性的干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间预测老年人的心理性.
- 识别影响性的个人,人际和社区层面的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用2016年和2020年健康和退休研究数据进行长度研究 (N=3,364).
- 采用了具有交叉验证的机器学习算法 (LASSO,Ridge,Random Forest).
- 使用的SHAP值用于特征重要性解释.
主要成果:
- 心理特征 (五大特征,乐观,生活目标,生活满意度,宗教信仰) 是强有力的预测因素.
- 流行病前的社会因素 (参与,支持,社区凝聚力) 和流行病适应 (技术,社会行为) 正面预测了弹性.
- 老年主观年龄与较低的弹性相关;观察到非线性和相互作用效应.
结论:
- 弹性是复杂的,多因素的,受到广泛的个人和社会决定因素的影响.
- 以理论为基础的数据科学方法增强了对弹性的理解.
- 解决数字公平和促进社会/社区联系的战略对于未来的灾难准备至关重要.
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