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在全球变暖下的极端气候影响中,占主导地位的时期正在转移
Karim Zantout1,2, Juraj Balkovic3, Maik Billing4
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. karim.zantout@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature communications
|November 5, 2025
概括
诸如作物失败和野火等极端气候事件显示出自然规律性,但全球变暖破坏了这些模式. 这项研究揭示了向不规则事件和更快周期的转变,影响了适应策略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据分析 数据分析
背景情况:
- 极端气候事件越来越多地被研究为它们的时空模式.
- 这些事件的规律性及其在全球变暖下的变化仍未得到充分探索.
- 了解事件周期性对于有效的适应计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查极端气候事件的规律性,特别是作物失败,热浪和野火.
- 为了确定这些规律性模式是如何被全球变暖改变的.
- 引入一种用于分析极端事件规律性的新方法.
主要方法:
- 在历史数据中对作物失败,热浪和野火的主导时期的分析.
- 在工业化前的条件下与人类时代相比,事件规律的比较.
- 预测未来的规律性转移,使用去趋势的气候变化场景.
主要成果:
- 在工业化前的条件下,作物失败和野火呈现出占主导地位的时期 (分别为受影响地区的28%和10%),与像ENSO这样的气候振荡有关.
- 在工业化前的条件下,热浪不规则地发生.
- 过渡到人类时代显示主导时期增加了2-13%,转向单调增长取代了自然规律性模式.
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结论:
- 全球变暖显著改变了极端气候事件的规律性,将它们从自然周期转移到更不规则或单调的模式.
- 这些观察到的事件规律的变化需要修订适应策略.
- 开发的方法提供了一个新的工具,用于研究和预测极端气候事件的行为.
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