根据2020年至2100年的替代路径,对中国的城市级GDP估计
Jinjie Sun1, Rui Wang2, Jiachen Wang3
1Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.
Scientific data
|November 5, 2025
概括
本研究使用科布-道格拉斯模型预测到2100年中国城市级国内生产总值 (GDP). 它考虑了社会经济因素,为城市发展提供了关键的经济预测.
科学领域:
- 城市经济学城市经济学
- 经济建模经济建模
- 气候变化政策 气候变化政策
背景情况:
- 城市对于经济增长和气候行动至关重要.
- 城市级国内生产总值 (GDP) 数据对于评估经济进步和社会福祉至关重要.
- 中国目前缺乏城市级GDP预测,阻碍了知情的城市规划.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个可靠的模型来预测2020年至2100年的中国城市级GDP.
- 在GDP预测中考虑中国的特定社会经济和政策格局.
- 为城市经济发展创造多种未来情景.
主要方法:
- 使用科布-道格拉斯生产模型来估计GDP.
- 根据不同的关键因素开发了27种不同的场景:技术,生育率和城市间互动.
- 纳入中国的人口政策 (两个孩子/三个孩子政策),区域发展战略和技术进步 (如人工智能).
主要成果:
- 开发的数据集与历史数据和其他未来GDP预测进行了验证.
- "劳动限制路径"和"商业常规 (BAU) 路径"与共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 1和2相一致.
- 该研究提供了对中国未来城市经济动态的细微表现.
结论:
- 该模型为了解和预测中国城市经济未来提供了关键的工具.
- 这些预测对于有效的城市规划,政策制定和应对气候变化至关重要.
- 基于场景的方法提高了未来GDP预测的准确性和适用性.
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