热浪增加了全球南方超密城市的夜间光强度:一项双重机器学习研究
Ramit Debnath1, Taran Chandel1,2, Fengyuan Han1
1University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
概括
热浪增加了全球南方城市的夜间经济活动,特别是在两天后. 这种影响随着热浪持续时间的延长而减弱,为城市弹性提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化和城市化加剧了热浪,对城市系统构成风险,特别是在全球南方.
- 全球南方城市的适应能力有限,加剧了热浪的影响.
- 夜间灯光 (NTL) 辐射作为经济活动的代理.
研究的目的:
- 在四个高密度城市调查热浪与夜间光 (NTL) 辐射之间的关系.
- 量化热浪对夜间经济活动的影响.
- 为改善城市对热浪影响的抵御能力制定战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用双重机器学习 (DML) 框架进行分析.
- 分析了2013年至2019年的数据.
- 对当地的气候混因素进行控制,以隔离热浪对NTL的影响.
主要成果:
- 在持续至少两天的热浪中,在广州,开罗和圣保罗观察到NTL辐射的统计显著增加.
- 这表明在长时间的高温期间,夜间经济活动的增加.
- 当热浪定义超过两天的值时,观察到的NTL的增加减少了.
结论:
- 热浪明显影响过密城市地区的夜间经济活动.
- 热浪事件的持续时间是它们对NTL的影响的一个关键因素.
- 调查结果为提高城市抵御热浪夜间影响的能力提供了关键的见解.
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