基于马克森特模型,预测Russula griseocarnosa在中国的合适分布
Ruixuan Wu1, Wei-Wei Lyu1, Fei Yu1
1College of Forestry, Shanxi Agricultural University, Jinzhong 030801, Shanxi, China.
Ying yong sheng tai xue bao = The journal of applied ecology
|November 6, 2025
概括
野生的食用真菌Russula griseocarnosa是一种可食用的真菌.
科学领域:
- 菌类学 菌类学是指菌类学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 鲁苏拉格里索卡诺萨 (Russula griseocarnosa) 是一种有价值的野生药用和可食用的生菌菌真菌.
- 了解其分布对于保护和利用至关重要.
- 目前和未来的息地适合性仍然在很大程度上是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 预测R. griseocarnosa在中国当前和未来气候条件下的潜在适合息地.
- 确定影响其分布模式的关键环境因素.
- 评估气候变化对其息地的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用优化的MaxEnt模型进行息地预测.
- 对环境变量分析分布数据.
- 根据当前和未来的气候场景 (SSP3-7.0) 预计适合息地.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型显示出高可靠性 (AUC > 0.9).
- 最冷季度的平均温度是最关键的因素 (46.5%的贡献).
- 预计在未来的气候变化下,适合息地的面积将增加,到2070年代可能达到69.97×10^5平方公里.
- 据预测,息地中心位置将向东北移动.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将扩大适合R. griseocarnosa的息地.
- 温度和降水是其分布的关键驱动因素.
- 保护策略可能需要适应息地适宜性和地理分布的预测变化.
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