极端气候和人类干预导致干旱内陆河流的洪水动态:区域和全球视角
Shan Qianjuan1, Ling Hongbo1, Liu Yong2
1Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China; University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100049, China.
Journal of environmental management
|November 6, 2025
概括
极端气候变化正在增加干旱地区的洪水,人类的水分转移影响了洪水的时间和强度. 了解这些驱动因素对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 大气和海洋科学 大气和海洋科学
背景情况:
- 洪水对干旱地区的水文循环至关重要,但极端气候变化和人类活动使洪水动态变得复杂.
- 现有的洪水表征缺乏对全球大气和海洋影响以及区域流失过程的全面理解.
研究的目的:
- 研究极端气候变化和人类干预对内陆洪水产生和传播的影响.
- 为了确定关键的大气循环模式和极端洪水的全球海洋驱动因素.
- 量化人类水分转移对干旱盆地的洪水特征的影响.
主要方法:
- 集成大气数值模拟和水文分析.
- 应用三维Copula功能模型来评估对人类的影响.
- 对极端气候指数 (如Rx5,TN90) 和海面温度 (SST) 的分析.
主要成果:
- 观察到年度最大洪水 (AMF),洪水持续时间 (DT) 和洪水频率 (NT) 的增长趋势.
- 极端气候指数 (Rx5,TN90) 与洪水强度增加之间存在显著的相关性.
- 量化了水分转移对洪水巧合概率的影响,并确定了与特定洪水类型相关的全球SST模式.
结论:
- 极端气候变化正在加剧干旱地区的洪水风险,其特点是AMF,DT和NT的增加.
- 全球海洋条件,特别是特定地区的SST,与不同类型的洪水有关 (风暴与融雪/冰).
- 人类的水分转移显著改变了洪水的传播,需要适应性管理策略干旱的内陆盆地.
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