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探索更健康和可持续饮食的不同过渡途的环境和分配影响:经济建模研究
Marijke Kuiper1, Thijs de Lange2, Willem-Jan van Zeist1
1Wageningen Social & Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|November 6, 2025
概括
政策干预可以将饮食转向可持续性,但可能无法完全实现EAT-Lancet (EL) 的目标. 价格激励措施显示出可扩展和公正的饮食转型的前景,影响环境和经济结果.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 公共卫生 营养 公共卫生 营养
背景情况:
- EAT-Lancet (EL) 报告提出了改变健康和地球边界的变革性饮食转变.
- 实现EL饮食需要与目前的肉类消费趋势有显著的偏离.
- 现有的研究缺乏关于改变饮食的实际政策干预措施的指导.
研究的目的:
- 为实现饮食转变而远离高肉类消费而制定具体政策.
- 评估这些政策的经济,环境和分配影响.
- 为了比较政策干预措施与外源性转向EL饮食.
主要方法:
- 利用MAGNET,一个全球可计算的一般平衡模型,用于经济模拟 (2025-2050).
- 定义了一个政策包,包括推动,财政调整 (税收/补贴) 和价格信号.
- 分析了组合干预措施的相互作用,并将它们与异源EL饮食场景进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 该政策包没有完全实现EL饮食建议,在水果,蔬菜和脉摄入量方面留下了差距.
- 温室气体排放量随着政策包 (-4 GtCO2e) 减少,比外部EL饮食 (-3 GtCO2e) 减少更多.
- 与外部EL饮食 (26.1%的成本增加) 相比,政策包改善了家庭的负担能力 (-4.4%的成本增加).
结论:
- 干预设计极大地影响饮食转变的实现和影响;价格激励提供了一个可扩展的,公正的方法.
- 政策包可以提高可负担性和减少排放,但可能无法完全实现EL目标.
- 扩大生产力,减少废物和土地利用监管政策可以解决权衡问题并改善结果.
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