食品系统转型的捆绑措施:一个全球性的多模式评估
Marina Sundiang1, Thais Diniz Oliveira1, Daniel Mason-D'Croz2
1Department of Global Development, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA; Cornell Atkinson Centre for Sustainability, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|November 6, 2025
概括
捆绑食品系统转型措施,包括饮食转变和气候政策,对于实现环境目标和缓解价格上至关重要. 孤立的干预措施是不够的,强调需要协调的方法来最大限度地提高效益,尽量减少权衡.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 当前的粮食系统对人类健康和地球福祉构成风险,十分之一的人面临饥饿.
- 不可持续的环境影响和复杂的系统相互作用需要对食品系统采取转型性的方法.
- 应对这些挑战需要了解各种转型措施的相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 量化关键粮食系统转型措施的单个和综合影响.
- 评估提高农业生产率,减少粮食损失和浪费,改变饮食和实施减缓气候变化政策的潜力.
- 分析这些措施在一起实施时的相互作用,互补性和权衡.
主要方法:
- 全球多模型评估使用十种最先进的全球经济模型.
- 评估四项关键措施:农业生产率,减少粮食损失和浪费,饮食转变和气候缓解.
- 分解分析,以区分措施在捆绑情景中的单个,总和相互作用效应.
主要成果:
- 单个措施不足以实现高级别的环境目标,可能会产生意想不到的后果.
- 捆绑措施实现了副效益:到2050年,农业温室气体排放量减少50%,土地转型减少近20%.
- 饮食转变和气候政策是关键的环境驱动因素,而生产力和减少废物适度的价格上.
结论:
- 对粮食系统转型和气候变化缓解的协调方法至关重要,超越了孤立的干预.
- 了解供给侧,需求侧和气候政策之间的相互作用对于设计有效的干预方案至关重要.
- 政策制定者应该通过全面的战略,致力于最大限度地提高效益,并最大限度地减少跨环境,经济和社会维度的权衡.
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