评估破坏场景,以提高下游石油供应链的弹性和成本最小化,使用蒙特卡洛模拟
Malik Asad Hayat Awan1, Afshan Naseem1, Ali Ahsan2
1Department of Engineering Management, College of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering, National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|November 6, 2025
概括
石油供应链中断显著增加了运输成本,需要多样化运输方式,如散装货物和公路运输,以减轻短缺. 增强供应链弹性需要探索库存管理和替代管道开发.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 能源物流 能源物流
背景情况:
- 下游石油供应链面临来自随机和预期中断的复杂挑战.
- 运输成本是一个关键因素,受供应链网络设计和运营策略的影响.
- 了解干扰影响对于维持能源安全和经济稳定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化中断对炼油供应链中运输成本的影响.
- 分析不同运输方式在中断场景下如何受到影响和利用.
- 确定增强供应链抵御中断的能力的策略.
主要方法:
- 为了建立理论框架,进行了全面的文献审查.
- 开发了一个混合整数线性编程 (MILP) 模型来模拟石油供应链.
- 蒙特卡洛模拟用于生成和分析各种干扰场景.
主要成果:
- 干扰导致总体运输成本大幅增加.
- 观察到产品流量的显著转变,对进口的依赖性增加.
- 散装货物和公路运输等模式的使用量增加,以弥补管道中断.
结论:
- 石油供应链中断对石油供应链运输费用产生深远影响.
- 运输方式的多样化至关重要,特别是当管道受到限制时.
- 未来的研究应该集中在库存管理和替代基础设施上,以加强弹性.
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