使用因子分析和回归的可解释的统计方法来预测光伏电力
Vedat Esen1, Berhan Coban2, Bahar Yalcin Kavus3
1Department of Electric Electronics Engineering, Istanbul Topkapi University, 34087, İstanbul, Turkey. vedatesen@topkapi.edu.tr.
Scientific reports
|November 6, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一个可解释的光伏预测框架,使用层次因素分析和回归. 该模型为太阳能发电的气象影响提供了透明的洞察力,证明了复杂的机器学习方法的强大替代方案.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 数据科学和分析数据科学和分析
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 准确的太阳能预测对于电网稳定性和可再生能源整合至关重要.
- 现有的机器学习模型,如LSTM,往往缺乏透明度和可解释性.
- 复杂的多变量模型在开发和理解其预测驱动因素方面存在挑战.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个可解释的设计光伏 (PV) 预测框架.
- 为了提高透明度,将层次因素分析 (HFA) 与回归结合起来.
- 简化复杂的预测模型并确定太阳能发电的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 利用等级因素分析 (HFA) 将高维气象数据缩小为三个关键因素.
- 采用单参数回归模型来实现系数级透明度和规范化.
- 通过在土耳其阿迪亚曼的一个光伏电厂进行15分钟的太阳能测量来评估框架.
主要成果:
- 拟议的框架在光伏预测方面实现了强大的概括能力.
- 该模型为气象变量如何影响太阳能发电量提供了明确,可验证的见解.
- 证明了基于回归的方法的有效性,作为深度学习的可解释的替代方案.
结论:
- 开发的框架为光伏预测提供了一个透明和可解释的方法.
- 基于回归的方法可以作为复杂的深度学习模型的强大和可理解的替代方案.
- 该研究通过确定关键的气象驱动因素来简化太阳能预报.
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