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在中国泉州改善流感预测:一个ARIMAX模型与气象驱动器集成
Huanhuan Pan1,2,3, Jiangyi Liu1,2, Fengping Li1,2
1The Affiliated Quanzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China.
Frontiers in public health
|November 7, 2025
概括
气象因素,如低大气压和中等降水增加了州的流感风险. 将它们纳入预测模型可以显著提高公共卫生干预的准确性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 流感带来了一个重大的公共卫生挑战,季节性变化.
- 气象因素会影响流感的传播,但它们在诸如泉州之类的亚热带季风气候中的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查州气象变量与类似流感的疾病 (ILI) 之间的联系.
- 评估气象因素对流感预测模型的影响.
主要方法:
- 来自泉州哨兵医院的每周ILI数据 (2016-2024) 的分析.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM),交叉相关函数 (CCF) 和ARIMAX建模.
- 研究了气象因素和ILI之间的滞后和非线性关系.
主要成果:
- ILI%显示下降 (2016-2020年),随后增加 (2020-2024年),其中15岁以下的儿童受到影响最多.
- 观察到双向季节性模式,冬季和夏季的峰值.
- 低大气压和中等降水 (4-16毫米) 与增加ILI风险有关.
- 降水>21毫米和高大气压显示出保护作用.
- 一个最佳预测模型包含了2周的降雨滞后,提高了预测准确度.
结论:
- 气象因素显著提高了流感预测模型的准确性.
- 这些发现支持在亚热带地区开发基于气候的流感早期预警系统.
- 结果有助于设计有针对性的公共卫生干预措施.
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