2000年至2020年美国与热和寒有关的死亡负担
Lingzhi Chu1,2, Robert Dubrow1,2, Kai Chen1,2
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
JAMA network open
|November 7, 2025
概括
在美国,非最佳温度显著增加了死亡率. 寒冷的温度每年导致的过度死亡人数比热量更多,高温的负担越来越大,凸显了有针对性的公共卫生战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变暖需要准确量化来自非最佳温度的国家死亡负担.
- 了解温度对死亡率的时空影响对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查2000年至2020年在连续的美国地区与极端高温和极端寒冷相关的死亡负担.
- 量化因非最佳温度而导致的过度死亡,并分析趋势.
主要方法:
- 美国国家卫生统计中心 (NCHS) 对连续美国 (2000-2020年) 的死亡记录的案例系列分析.
- 采用了两阶段的建模方法:用分布式滞后非线性模型进行县特定的条件后勤回归 (案例交叉),然后进行元回归聚合.
- 分析了PRISM气候数据库中的每日平均温度数据,分辨率为4公里.
主要成果:
- 分析了超过5400万例死亡. 低温和高温都与6天内死亡风险增加有关.
- 估计每年过度死亡:45,992人死于低温和3,414人死于高温.
- 在2000-2009年至2010-2020年期间,观察到高温死亡负担显著增加.
结论:
- 非最佳温度是国家死亡负担的重要贡献者.
- 脆弱性因地理位置,死亡原因和人口因素而异.
- 定制的气候和公共卫生战略对于减轻与温度相关的健康风险至关重要.
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