评估亚马逊的影响和COVID-19的有限影响,从美国消费者群众采购购物
Alex Berke1, Dana Calacci2, Alex Pentland1,3
1MIT Media Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PloS one
|November 7, 2025
概括
消费者在线购物显著增加,特别是在COVID-19期间,但到2022年恢复到流行前的趋势. 数据揭示了在线和离线零售之间的人口差异和转变,特别是在书籍,鞋类和杂货中.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 消费者行为 消费者行为
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 在线零售业已显著增长,但了解细粒度的消费者购买行为及其演变仍然是一个挑战.
- 综合指标往往掩盖了在线购物频率和产品多样性的细微趋势.
- 众包消费者购买数据为不断变化的零售景观提供了一个独特的镜头.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用消费者级数据,分析随着时间的推移在线购买行为中的变化.
- 调查购买习惯和流行病影响的人口变化.
- 检查在线和离线零售之间的相互作用,识别替代效应.
主要方法:
- 利用美国消费者亚马逊购买历史记录的众包数据集从2018年到2022年.
- 开发了用于在线购买频率和产品多样性的新指标.
- 进行了相关性分析,以评估在线/离线零售替代效应.
主要成果:
- 在2018-2022年期间,消费者级在线购买指标增长了85%以上,在2021年达到顶峰.
- 在线购买显示了疫情前的上升趋势,COVID-19的激增,但到2022年恢复趋势.
- 在购买对大流行病的反应中观察到显著的人口差异.
- 发现了替代效应:在线购买书籍/鞋子与COVID前的当地商店就业有负相关性;在线购买杂货与COVID期间的店内访问有负相关性.
结论:
- 众包消费者购买数据提供了超出总量指标的有价值的经济见解.
- 在线零售业的增长显著,但受疫情前趋势和人口统计学变化的影响.
- 疫情暂时加速了在线采用,但长期影响是有限的,在线和离线道之间观察到明显的替代模式.
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