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评估印度半岛的复合洪水驱动因素:多变量基方法
Ankita Mukherjee1, Vikas Poonia1, Somil Swarnkar2
1Department of Civil Engineering, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal, India.
Journal of environmental management
|November 7, 2025
概括
印度半岛的复合洪水是由降水,下水和土壤水分驱动的. 这项研究使用先进的形模型来揭示这些因素如何相互作用,突出显示了大河流盆地.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 环境风险评估环境风险评估
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,洪水越来越严重,印度对复合洪水的研究不足.
- 印度半岛的洪水受降水,下水和土壤水分的影响,传统方法通常低估了这些因素.
- 现有的分析未能捕捉到洪水驱动因素的相互依赖,导致潜在的风险低估.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用多变量分析框架,全面评估印度半岛六个主要河流流域的复合洪水.
- 通过基于的技术,研究降水,下水和土壤水分之间的联合依赖关系.
- 为极端洪水事件的可能性提供见解,并为适应性管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 采用基于多变量的方法来分析复合洪水.
- 利用了从1980年到2023年的每日格式降水 (IMD),下水 (MERRA-2) 和土壤湿度 (GLEAM) 数据.
- 分析了第90,95和99百分点值的极端事件,包括超值概率,条件概率和联合回归期.
主要成果:
- 双变量分析显示,排水和先前的土壤湿度显著影响复合洪水,特别是在克里希纳和卡维里盆地.
- 长期湿的土壤条件被发现会加剧特定盆地的洪水风险.
- 三种分析发现,大河流域最容易受到极端复合洪水场景的影响.
结论:
- 这项研究是印度半岛首次使用囊技术进行综合性综合性洪水分析.
- 调查结果强调需要改进洪水风险评估和适应性战略,在面临气候变化的河流盆地.
- 结果支持加强洪水预测,基础设施规划和政策制定,以减轻洪水损害.
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