在全球再生植被地区,水资源仍然是可持续的
Yuanfang Chai1, Yao Yue2, Alistair Gl Borthwick3
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; College of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China; China-Mozambique Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Smart Agriculture, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China.
Science bulletin
|November 7, 2025
概括
复植通常不会加剧全球水资源短缺,大多数地区预计有足够的水资源. 战略性水资源管理对于平衡生态收益与人类需求至关重要,特别是在印度和大洋洲.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 关于从重新植被地区的透气对全球水资源供应的影响,存在激烈的辩论.
- 了解这种关系对于可持续的土地管理和水资源规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估重新植被对全球水资源的影响.
- 在气候变化情景下,预测气候变化情景下的再生植被地区的未来水资源供应.
- 确定适合未来复植的潜在区域.
主要方法:
- 从20个相结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型的历史 (1982-2016) 和未来 (2030-2100) 时期的利用输出.
- 将预计的蒸发和水的可用性与观察数据和人类用水量进行比较.
- 分析了脆弱地区的降水和人口增长预测.
主要成果:
- 从1982年至2016年,全球72.2%的再生植被地区的水资源超过了人类的使用量.
- 预测表明,到2030年至2100年,人类对水的需求可能会在79.4%的再生植被地区得到满足.
- 印度和大洋洲需要注意,因为可能降水量下降和人口增长.
- 全球大约1.6%的赤裸地区适合重新植被.
结论:
- 在全球范围内,重新植被不太可能加剧水资源短缺.
- 在重新植被的地区,战略性水资源管理和监测至关重要.
- 未来的复植工作应考虑区域降水趋势和人口动态.
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