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基于ESG的投资组合优化的多标准方法,包括历史表现,前性见解和可信度CVaR:DJIA的案例研究
Esmaeil Taheripour1, Seyed Jafar Sadjadi1, Babak Amiri2
1School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, 16846-13114, Iran.
Scientific reports
|November 7, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的投资组合管理框架,将环境,社会和治理 (ESG) 风险和模糊逻辑整合起来,以加强不确定性处理. 可信度CVaR方法提高了风险控制和投资策略在波动性市场的弹性.
科学领域:
- 量化金融 量化金融
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 计算金融是指计算金融.
背景情况:
- 传统的投资组合优化与现实世界的不确定性和不完整数据作斗争.
- 环境,社会和治理 (ESG) 因素在投资决策中越来越重要.
- 现有的模型通常依赖于概率假设,这些假设可能不反映市场的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个新的投资组合管理框架,包括ESG风险和模糊逻辑.
- 在市场和投资者不确定性下增强投资组合的弹性和风险控制.
- 在数据有限或专家意见不同时,为投资组合优化提供更现实的方法.
主要方法:
- 条件风险价值 (CVaR) 与不确定性可信性理论的整合.
- 模拟预期回报不确定性的模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟模拟
- 使用FinBERT情绪分析和NotebookLM进行公司报告的文本分析,以评估业绩.
- 使用DJIA历史股票回报数据和可信度CVaR (CCVaR) 方法进行实证验证.
主要成果:
- 与传统方法相比,CCVaR框架证明了优越的不良风险控制.
- 优化的投资组合对市场波动具有更大的弹性.
- 该模型有效地捕获来自文本分析的微妙见解,用于性能预测.
- 与平等权重策略的比较显示了拟议模型的优势.
结论:
- 拟议的可信度CVaR框架提供了在不确定的金融环境中对投资组合管理的强有力的方法.
- ESG整合和模糊逻辑增强投资策略的稳定性和降低风险.
- 这项研究为寻求提高投资组合绩效和稳定性的投资者和经理提供了实用的见解.
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