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一个法医工程框架,用于水水库系统的洪水管理
Masoumeh Zeinali1, Omid Bozorg-Haddad2, Mehdi Yasi1
1Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
Scientific reports
|November 7, 2025
概括
极端洪水需要更好的水库管理. 一个法医工程框架改善了伊朗的洪水控制.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源工程 水文和水资源工程
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
背景情况:
- 极端洪水的频率和严重性的增加凸显了当前水库运营政策的缺陷.
- 事件后的问责制和有效的洪水管理策略对于基础设施保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出和应用一个法医工程框架,用于评估和优化水水库系统的洪水管理.
- 评估不同运营策略的有效性,包括实时优化和新基础设施的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 使用历史和预测流入数据对布式水库系统进行基于场景的分析.
- 开发一个动态的标准运营策略 (SOP),包括封闭的溢出和实时优化技术.
- 在基因算法框架内整合支持向量回归 (SVR) 和长短期记忆 (LSTM) 进行流入预测.
主要成果:
- 没有拟议的水库,与历史运营相比,在不同的场景中,洪水损害减少了8-59%.
- 在经过测试的场景中,将Mashoureh水库纳入其中进一步减少了34-100%的损害.
- 马苏雷水库的有效性受到其位置下游源自洪水量的限制.
结论:
- 结合结构性 (例如新水库) 和非结构性措施 (例如优化运营政策) 对于有效的洪水控制至关重要.
- 法医场景评估为防洪准备,实时操作和未来基础设施规划提供了宝贵的见解.
- 动态SOP和实时优化,以准确的预测为依据,在极端洪水事件中显著提高水库系统性能.
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