极端气候变化对中国陆地生态系统碳储存的影响
Junjie Jin1, Haoqi Liu1, Junjie Jiang1
1College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Zhejiang A&F University, 666 Wusu Street, Lin'an District, 311300, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China; State Forestry Administration Key Laboratory of Forestry Sensing Technology and Intelligent Equipment, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311300, China; Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Forestry Intelligent Monitoring and Information Technology Research, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311300, China.
The Science of the total environment
|November 8, 2025
概括
强烈降雨等极端气候事件正在增加,影响中国的碳储存. 分析表明,这些事件与温度变化一起,显著影响了地表生物质碳 (AGBC) 动态.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,极端气候事件正在增加,影响陆地碳储存.
- 评估这些影响对于气候变化适应和减缓战略至关重要.
- 中国的陆地生态系统在全球碳循环中发挥着至关重要的作用.
研究的目的:
- 分析1990-2019年中国极端气候指数的趋势和变化.
- 预测地表生物质碳 (AGBC) 的空间分布.
- 量化极端气候指数对AGBC及其空间异质性的影响.
主要方法:
- 气候趋势分析的Theil-Sen估计器和曼-肯德尔测试.
- 随机森林回归集成遥感,气象和地形数据用于AGBC预测.
- 采用沙普利增量解释 (SHAP) 的XGBoost算法来量化气候驱动因素的影响.
主要成果:
- 观察到温暖和极端降水事件的显著加剧,冷事件的下降.
- 1998-2005年间的气候变化与森林,草原和湿地稳步增加的AGBC相关.
- 非常潮湿的日子 (R95pTOT),白天温度范围 (DTR),TNx和PRCPTOT被确定为AGBC的关键气候驱动因素.
结论:
- 极端气候事件表现出与生态系统碳动态的复杂,非线性相互作用.
- 气候与AGBC关系存在区域差异,东部有增强效应,西部有潜在的抑制效应.
- 这些发现为中国的碳汇管理和气候适应提供了指导,以实现双碳目标.
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