制造浪潮:通过基于证据的风险方法和系统决策,在量化微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 中超越一万分之一的基准
Kerry A Hamilton1, Hunter Quon1, Nicholas J Ashbolt2
1School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA; The Biodesign Institute Center for Environmental Health Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA.
Water research
|November 8, 2025
概括
公共卫生决策需要更好的风险评估工具,而不仅仅是简单的基准. 综合可持续性,成本和公平性的系统方法对于管理传染病风险至关重要,特别是在水的再利用中.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 风险评估 风险评估
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 传染病管理依赖于量化人类风险,通常按脆弱性进行细分.
- 目前的风险评估范式在实际应用中是有限的,诸如水再利用等行业使用固定基准 (例如,10,000例感染/人/年中的1例).
研究的目的:
- 解决在定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 中需要更广泛的可接受性标准的需求.
- 探索整体决策方面,包括风险管理中的可持续性,成本和公平性.
- 确定可接受的微生物风险指标和替代方法的研究缺口,重点关注水的再利用.
主要方法:
- 审查现有的风险评估范式和基准方法.
- 在QMRA中分析风险风险权衡.
- 确定当前和未来微生物风险指标的研究缺口.
主要成果:
- 现有的风险管理实践往往使用简化基准.
- 越来越需要将可持续性,成本和公平性纳入风险与风险的权衡中.
- 基于证据的基准可以增强风险管理的系统方法.
结论:
- 目前的QMRA基准对于全面的公共卫生决策是不够的.
- 综合整体因素的系统方法提供了一个更完整的替代方案,而不是一个尺寸适合所有目标.
- 需要对可接受微生物风险的先进指标进行进一步的研究,特别是对于水的再利用应用.
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