2024年加沙大屠杀期间的儿童死亡率:与全球疾病负担进行比较分析
Reuben Granich1, Somya Gupta2, Victoria Rose3
1Consultant, Geneva, Switzerland.
Scandinavian journal of public health
|November 10, 2025
概括
由于种族灭绝,加沙的儿童死亡率是全球主要的原因,但被排除在国际卫生报告之外. 承认种族灭绝是可以预防的原因对于问责制和人道主义援助至关重要.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人道主义研究 人道主义研究
背景情况:
- 全球儿童死亡率框架往往忽略了像种族灭绝这样的政治敏感原因.
- 这种排除扭曲了国际卫生评估和应对工作.
研究的目的:
- 量化2024年加沙儿童死亡率.
- 将这些数字与已确定的全球儿童死亡原因进行比较.
- 评估排除种族灭绝对国际卫生指标的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析巴勒斯坦卫生部 (MoH) 官方死亡报告.
- 三角测量采用捕获-重新捕获研究和间接-直接死亡比率 (4:1, 10:1).
- 2024年儿童 (15岁以下),婴儿和五岁以下儿童死亡率的计算,与2021年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 估计和战前趋势相比.
主要成果:
- 加沙估计的儿童死亡人数 (年龄在15岁以下) 范围在14824至148240,占加沙人口的2-17%.
- 与战前水平相比,五岁以下儿童死亡率增加了14-34倍,婴儿死亡率增加了4-9倍.
- 与种族灭绝有关的儿童死亡将加沙定位为全球儿童死亡的主要原因,根据估计,全球排名第10至15位.
结论:
- 加沙与种族灭绝有关的儿童死亡是全球主要的死亡原因,目前被排除在国际监测之外.
- 准确的健康指标和问责制需要承认和编码种族灭绝作为可预防的死亡原因.
- 紧急的人道主义反应至关重要,需要将这些原因纳入全球卫生框架.
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