使用人工智能模型预测洪水后传染病发生率:使用例行收集的EHR数据进行回顾性前后队列研究
Mehdi Safari1, Alireza Zali2, Hossein Hatami1
1Department of Public Health, School of Public Health & Environmental and Occupational Hazards Control Research Center Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran.
Health science reports
|November 10, 2025
概括
机器学习模型在预测洪水后传染病爆发方面取得了适度的成功,这凸显了需要更多数据来改善公共卫生紧急响应.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 由于环境污染和医疗保健系统中断,洪水显著增加了传染病风险.
- 现有的灾后疾病监测预测模型有限.
- 开发准确的预测模型对于有效的公共卫生紧急响应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测洪水事件后传染病发病率的机器学习算法.
- 在洪水后的场景中评估各种机器学习分类器的性能.
- 确定洪水后传染病发生的关键预测特征.
主要方法:
- 使用电子健康记录进行了回顾性前后队列研究.
- 他们比较了洪水前30天和洪水后30天的数据.
- 五个机器学习分类器 (随机森林,物流回归,SVM,梯度提升,ANN) 被训练并使用AUC进行评估.
主要成果:
- 洪水后的传染病患病率显著增加 (39.5%至47.3%).
- 随机森林实现了最高的预测性能 (AUC=0.76),其次是梯度提升 (0.74).
- 年龄和访问日期是最重要的预测特征;年轻的患者有更高的洪水后率.
结论:
- 机器学习模型对洪水后传染病具有适度的预测能力.
- 基于人工智能的灾难流行病学是可行的,但需要进一步发展.
- 纳入环境和社会经济数据对于可操作的预测系统至关重要.
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