核电逐步淘汰:我们能否赶上二氧化碳排放的步伐?
Luisa Loiacono1,2, Leonzio Rizzo1,3, Riccardo Secomandi1,3
1Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy.
PloS one
|November 10, 2025
概括
德国的核电淘汰最初增加了化石燃料的排放量,特别是煤炭. 然而,可再生能源的增长在13年内逐渐抵消了这种影响,导致到2023年排放差距消失.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 核能被公认为是一种低碳能源,但安全问题导致多个国家逐步淘汰核能,尤其是福岛后的德国.
- 远离核能的转型引发了对能源安全的质疑,以及对化石燃料的依赖增加与可再生能源扩张的可能性.
研究的目的:
- 分析德国2010年开始的核电淘汰对化石燃料来源二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放的影响.
- 评估核能产能下降是否被增加的可再生能源发电或回归化石燃料所抵消.
主要方法:
- 使用合成控制方法模拟德国的反事实二氧化碳排放.
- 分析了2010年至2023年德国煤炭,石油和天然气二氧化碳排放的轨迹.
主要成果:
- 德国的核电逐步淘汰最初导致化石燃料排放量减少较弱,而不是合成控制,这是由于对煤炭的依赖增加而导致的.
- 在13年的时间里 (2011-2023年),德国与其合成控制之间的与化石相关的二氧化碳排放差异逐渐减少.
- 到2023年,德国与其合成控制之间的排放差距已经消失,这表明初始影响的缓解.
结论:
- 核电淘汰最初在短期内导致了德国化石燃料污染的增加.
- 德国可再生能源的显著增长在缓解逐步淘汰核能的负面排放影响方面发挥了关键作用.
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