风险尺度和适应性"恐惧":风险通货膨胀的进化理论
John M McNamara1, Sasha R X Dall2, Alasdair I Houston3
1School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. john.mcnamara@bristol.ac.uk.
Scientific reports
|November 10, 2025
概括
人们通过过度反应来避免罕见的,高死亡率的事件,如9/11. 进化倾向于适应风险总和,如风暴,而不是个人风险,以确保在波动的环境中生存.
科学领域:
- 进化生物学是进化的生物学.
- 风险感知 风险感知
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 人类行为经常表现出强烈的避免低概率,高后果事件.
- 9月11日的袭击导致间接死亡,原因是避免乘飞机旅行,偏爱风险较高的高速公路旅行.
研究的目的:
- 调查对总体风险和人口风险的行为反应的进化适应意义.
- 模拟自然选择如何塑造对不同类型环境波动的反应.
主要方法:
- 对风险的进化反应的理论建模.
- 在重大灾难性事件后分析行为数据.
- 区分总体 (环境) 和人口 (个人) 风险.
主要成果:
- 相对于人口风险,总体风险的行为通货膨胀是一种自然选择下的适应策略.
- 风险膨胀的程度取决于受到总体风险影响的等位基载体的比例.
结论:
- 对于灾难性事件,强烈的避免行为可能是对环境或总体风险的进化适应.
- 这种进化观点有助于解释对罕见,高影响事件的看似不成比例的反应.
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