火山爆发扰乱了ENSO与陆地夏季温度的远程连接
Xu Zhang1,2,3, Jinbao Li4,5,6, Shang-Ping Xie7
1Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Nature communications
|November 10, 2025
概括
火山爆发破坏了与厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 相关的全球天气模式. 这些被气候模型无法捕捉的破坏,挑战了气候重建中的假设.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是通过大气远程连接的全球天气的主要驱动因素.
- 在像火山爆发这样的外部影响下,ENSO远程连接的稳定性还不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查火山喷发如何影响ENSO与全球陆地表面空气温度的远程连接.
- 评估地球系统模型模拟这些冲击的能力.
主要方法:
- 对观测数据的分析,以确定火山爆发年期间ENSO温度相关性的变化.
- 观察到的冲击与来自最先进的地球系统模型的模拟进行比较.
主要成果:
- 火山爆发严重破坏ENSO电信连接与北极夏季全球陆地表面空气温度.
- 观察到的相关性转移发生在62.27%以前连接的地区.
- 地球系统模型未能再现这些观察到的破坏性影响.
结论:
- 火山爆发引入了ENSO远程连接模式中的非静止性.
- 当前的气候模型在模拟气候异常和扰动下的极端环境时面临着挑战.
- 调查结果质疑使用代理记录的ENSO重建的可靠性,并强调需要更好地了解火山爆发对区域气候的影响.
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