在甘河流域的水文干旱动态使用形函数和干旱中心迁移
Weilin Liu1, Jingrong Zhang2, Zhanxiong Zhou2
1Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources Allocation and Efficient Utilization, Jiangxi University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanchang, 330099, China. weilin_liu@juwp.edu.cn.
Scientific reports
|November 10, 2025
概括
中国甘河流域的水文干旱显示,持续时间较长与严重程度更大相关. 干旱中心从北向南迁移,随着严重程度的加剧而加剧,为更好的水资源规划提供信息.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 有效的干旱管理需要了解水文干旱的时空动态.
- 甘河流域 (GRB) 面临着干旱影响的重大水资源挑战.
研究的目的:
- 研究1959年至2019年GRB水文干旱的时空演变.
- 量化干旱特征及其相互关系,以改善区域干旱缓解和水资源规划.
主要方法:
- 利用GRB的观察和SWAT模拟的流水数据.
- 应用标准化流水指数 (SRI) 和运行理论来识别干旱持续时间 (D),严重程度 (S) 和强度峰值 (P).
- 采用重心模型进行空间迁移分析,并使用Copula函数来模拟干旱特征的联合分布.
主要成果:
- 确定了干旱持续时间和严重程度之间的正相关性;较短的事件较轻微.
- 干旱中心主要位于中央GRB,呈现出与干旱严重程度相加剧的南北迁移.
- 甘贝尔瓜有效地模拟了D,S和P之间的依赖结构,包括三元关系.
- 联合和同时发生的回归期为评估极端干旱频率提供了坚实的框架.
结论:
- 该研究提供了对GRB水文干旱动态的定量理解.
- 这些发现支持加强区域干旱缓解战略和水资源规划.
- 时空分析和概率建模对于有效干旱管理至关重要.
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