一个全面的描述性,预测性和处方性分析抗生素产品的需求在伊朗的COVID-19前,期间和后
Mohadese Zalpooli1, Arash Nemati2
1Healthcare Systems Engineering Group, Department of Industrial Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol City, Mazandaran Province, 47148-71167, Iran.
Scientific reports
|November 10, 2025
概括
COVID-19大流行严重影响了抗生素的消费,特别是阿莫西西林和阿齐思罗米. 疫情后的供应链调整对于防止抗生素短缺和确保有效的感染控制至关重要.
科学领域:
- 制药科学 制药科学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,医疗保健供应链中断,包括关键的抗生素分销部门.
- 在COVID-19等病毒爆发期间,抗生素对于管理二次感染至关重要.
- 根据消费转变重新协调抗生素供应链在流行病后至关重要,以防止短缺.
研究的目的:
- 分析COVID-19大流行之前,期间和之后的抗生素需求波动.
- 调查COVID-19对伊朗关键抗生素消费模式的影响.
- 为优化抗生素供应链提出数据驱动的战略.
主要方法:
- 采用了一种包含描述性,预测性和规范性分析的数据分析方法.
- 方法包括图形趋势研究,描述性统计,假设测试 (两样本平均值,ANOVA),时间序列预测和帕雷托分析.
- 分析了2013-2023年伊朗73种抗生素产品的消费数据 (每天1000名居民使用的量和剂量).
主要成果:
- COVID-19显著改变了阿莫西西林和阿齐思罗米的消费趋势.
- 在2021年,父母的青素消费量有所下降,这可能与COVID-19疫苗接种活动有关.
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,家长使用的Levovofloxacin使用量增加.
结论:
- 显然,COVID-19大流行影响了抗生素消费模式.
- 数据分析为在流行后重新优化抗生素供应链提供了必要的见解.
- 积极的供应链管理是必要的,以减轻未来的抗生素短缺,并确保可用性.
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