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未来粮食系统转型建模的复杂性和不确定性
Enayat A Moallemi1, Adam C Castonguay2, Daniel Mason-D'Croz3,4
1The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. enayat.moallemi@csiro.au.
Nature food
|November 10, 2025
概括
目前的模型不能充分反映复杂的食品系统. 重新考虑模型设计和使用对于整合各种利益相关者的需求和实现粮食系统的转型变化至关重要.
科学领域:
- 食品系统科学 食品系统科学
- 综合评估建模 综合评估建模
- 可持续性科学是一种科学.
背景情况:
- 食品系统面临着复杂的环境,社会,健康和经济压力.
- 现有的经济平衡和综合评估模型在指导粮食系统转型方面存在局限性.
- 未来的决策需要更具包容性和参与性的方法.
研究的目的:
- 评估当前模型在表示粮食系统方面的能力.
- 确定转型性粮食系统变革的挑战和机遇.
- 评估模型与决策过程的整合.
主要方法:
- 对食品系统当前建模方法的分析.
- 评估模型对关键转型方面的表现:社会政治动态,人与自然的反,规模联系,不确定性和利益相关者的需求.
- 评估模型在决策中的实用性.
主要成果:
- 目前的模型在捕捉食品系统的多维性质方面存在局限性.
- 代表社会政治动态,人与自然的反和规模互动存在挑战.
- 在不确定性和利益相关者的不断变化的需求下,模型在稳定性方面扎.
- 由于当前的模型设计和应用,有效地融入决策过程受到阻碍.
结论:
- 需要从根本上重新考虑模型设计和应用.
- 加强参与过程对于有效的粮食系统转型至关重要.
- 模型需要更好地纳入社会政治因素和人性反.
- 改进模型整合对于知情和包容性食品系统决策至关重要.
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