通过机器学习算法和未来场景,探索基于中部黑海地区气候变化的土壤有机碳动态
Aykut Çağlar1, Pelin Alaboz2, Orhan Dengiz3
1Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Black Sea Agricultural Research Institute, Samsun, Turkey.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|November 11, 2025
概括
由于气候变化,土壤有机碳预计将在中部黑海地区减少. 机器学习模型预测到2034年碳水平降低和荒漠化风险增加.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 土壤科学 土壤科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化需要增加土壤有机碳 (SOC) 的战略.
- 中部黑海地区的气候参数及其对SOC的影响需要分析.
- 了解未来的SOC趋势对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析中部黑海地区的SOC历史内容.
- 使用时间序列和机器学习模型预测未来的气候参数和SOC水平.
- 根据预测的气候指数来评估荒漠化风险.
主要方法:
- 对2005年和2022年的土壤样本进行分析.
- 使用的气候参数 (MAP,MAT) 和指数 (QE,AI,IDM,MFI,BGI).
- 使用SARIMA进行气候预测和MLR,SVR,ANN,RF,XGBoost进行SOC预测.
主要成果:
- 萨里马模型预测温度上升1-1.5°C,降水量减少.
- 随机森林 (RF) 算法显示出最好的SOC预测准确性 (RMSE:0.39,MAE:0.28,R2:0.61). 它们可以通过随机森林 (RF) 算法进行预测.
- 预计2034年的SOC水平 (1.46-1.95%) 低于之前的时期;发现沙漠化风险增加.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将减少中部黑海地区的SOC水平.
- 机器学习模型有效地预测未来的SOC内容.
- 该地区面临着到2034年荒漠化风险升高的风险.
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