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多层次的模式预测了青少年大麻使用的开始.

Yixin Wang1, Robbie Fraser2, Laika Aguinaldo3

  • 1Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.

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年轻人早期使用大麻会增加药物滥用和心理健康问题的风险. 应对压力和家庭酒精使用等关键因素预测了每周使用的开始和升级,提供了预防目标.

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大麻使用初始化.长度研究 长度研究机器学习 机器学习心理发展特征 心理发展特征生存模型的生存模式.年轻人 年轻人 年轻人 年轻人 年轻人

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科学领域:

  • 神经科学和发育心理学.
  • 青少年物质使用研究.
  • 公共卫生和预防医学.

背景情况:

  • 年轻人早期开始使用大麻与不良结果有关,包括物质使用障碍,心理健康状况和认知缺陷.
  • 了解青少年大麻使用的多方面的影响,对于制定有效的预防策略至关重要.
  • 之前的研究强调了个人,社会和环境因素,但需要采用全面的,数据驱动的方法.

研究的目的:

  • 确定青少年早期大麻使用开始和升级到每周使用的关键预测因素.
  • 分析各种各样的个人,微系统和外部系统层面的影响因素.
  • 探索旨在减少青少年大麻使用的预防计划的潜在目标.

主要方法:

  • 使用随机生存森林进行了一项基于数据的分析,对来自全国青少年酒精和神经发育联盟 (NCANDA) 队列的450名未曾使用大麻的年轻人 (12-21岁) 进行了数据驱动分析.
  • 分析了7个领域 (生物行为,认知,脑磁共振,家庭,同行,社区,法律) 的151项测量结果.
  • 为首次使用大麻的年龄和每周使用大麻的年龄开发了预测模型.

主要成果:

  • 随机生存森林模型准确地预测了第一次使用大麻的年龄 (C指数=0.68) 和每周使用大麻的开始 (C指数=0.69),显著超过了机会.
  • 第一次使用大麻的发病是由13个因素预测的,包括应对压力时较低的积极思维.
  • 以较少的因素 (四个) 预测到每周使用的升级,共享的预测因素包括大麻出售密度,家庭酒精获取和积极的酒精预期.

结论:

  • 青少年开始使用大麻受到广泛因素的影响,包括心理和环境因素.
  • 到习惯性 (每周) 大麻使用的升级似乎是由一组较小的关键因素驱动的,这表明了具体的干预目标.
  • 诸如家庭酒精供应和邻里大麻出口密度等因素是重要的预测因素,突出了环境影响在预防工作中的重要性.