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揭示时间和频率溢出影响:气候风险指数和能源期货市场
Anshita Sachan1, Amar Rao2, Gagan Deep Sharma3
1Department of Economics and Finance, Fortune Institute of International Business, New Delhi, 110057, India.
Journal of environmental management
|November 11, 2025
概括
气候风险对能源市场产生重大影响,在极端条件下,特定商品如燃油和WTI传递过渡风险. 长期影响较弱,反映了逐步脱碳. 这项研究增强了金融风险模型.
科学领域:
- *金融经济学和气候金融.
- *计量经济学和能源市场分析.
背景情况:
- *气候变化引入了过渡风险指数 (TRI) 和物理风险指数 (PRI),以及全球气候政策不确定性 (GCPU).
- * 这些风险与主要的能源期货市场 (布伦特,燃油,穆尔班,ULSD,WTI) 有着动态的相互作用.
- *现有的金融模式往往缺乏动态的,国家依赖的气候风险整合.
研究的目的:
- * 调查气候风险和能源未来之间的时间和频域溢出动态.
- *通过纳入动态气候风险因素来扩展仲裁定价理论 (APT).
- * 分析能源资产的敏感性如何在市场制度和量级上发生变化.
主要方法:
- * 应用灵活的计量经济学框架,使用时间变量参数向量自回归 (TVP-VAR).
- *使用量子连接分析来捕捉不对称和时间变化的溢出效应.
- * 将仲裁定价理论 (APT) 扩展到包括动态的,不可多样化的气候风险因素.
主要成果:
- * 气候风险指数和能源期货之间发现了显著的非线性,不对称和时间变化的溢出效应.
- *溢出链接在极端市场条件下和短期内明显更强.
- *能源商品,特别是燃油和WTI,是过渡风险的净传播者,在压力时期放大波动.
结论:
- *气候风险是系统性的,影响能源市场波动,需要适应性金融监管.
- * 调查结果支持将动态气候风险纳入超越静态模型的资产定价.
- *为政策制定者和投资者提供可操作的见解,以管理波动性并支持能源转型.
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