震惊与敬畏:经济制裁和相对军事开支
1Department of International Relations and International Organization, University of Groningen, the Netherlands.
概括
经济制裁迫使目标国家做出艰难的选择. 受到制裁的国家在短期内增加相对军事支出,以表明决心和巩固权力,但随着时间的推移,这种效应会减弱.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 经济制裁给目标国家带来了巨大的成本,迫使他们进行艰难的"枪与黄油"的权衡.
- 以前的研究集中在绝对军事开支上,没有研究经济制裁下的相对支出.
研究的目的:
- 调查受经济制裁的国家是否增加了相对的军事开支.
- 探讨应对制裁的军事开支调整的短期激励因素和长期动态.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的制裁冲击测量方法,考虑了突出性,成本和持续时间.
- 应用动态面板建模对来自166个国家的数据,跨越1962-2015年.
主要成果:
- 目标国家在制裁冲击后比例增加军事开支.
- 军事开支的相对增长在最初几年达到顶峰,然后逐渐下降.
- 调查结果支持这样一个理论,即国家使用军事支出来表明决心,并巩固在制裁下的权力.
结论:
- 经济制裁在短期内引发了对军事资源的战略重新分配.
- "枪与黄油"的计算在国际压力下转向防御.
- 了解这些动态对于制裁政策和军事开支研究至关重要.
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