使用和理性函数模型来计算跨不同奶频率的产量调整因子
Xiao-Lin Wu1,2, John Cole1,3,4, Asha M Miles5
1Council on Dairy Cattle Breeding, Bowie, MD 20716.
JDS communications
|November 12, 2025
概括
较高的挤奶频率会增加奶牛的牛奶产量,但产量会减少. 一个新的多项式理性函数模型准确地预测了跨频率的收益率调整,超过了指数模型.
科学领域:
- 动物科学动物科学
- 乳制品科学 乳制品科学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 哺乳频率是影响奶牛产量的一个关键因素.
- 对奶频率的产量反应是非线性的,表现为和.
- 准确预测产量调整因子对于优化奶牛场管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和评估一个新的多项式理性函数模型来导出牛奶产量调整因子.
- 将多项式模型的性能与现有的指数式理函数模型进行比较.
- 评估使用2x挤奶数据用于跨频率预测产量的实用性.
主要方法:
- 开发一个多项式理性函数模型 (有3个参数的2个多项式的比).
- 使用根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和R平方 (R2) 度量来比较模型性能.
- 对模型准确度的评估,以预测未观察到的挤奶频率的产量调整因子.
主要成果:
- 多项式理数函数模型的准确性比指数模型 (RMSE = 0.011,R2 = 0.994) 更高 (RMSE = 0.004,R2 = 0.999).
- 这两种模型都很好地适应了高达10倍的挤奶频率的数据,并预测了缺少数据的因素.
- 指数模型在有限的挤奶频率数据覆盖率下更强大.
结论:
- 多项式理性函数模型提供了更高的灵活性和准确性,用于预测跨不同挤奶频率的牛奶产量调整.
- 虽然准确,但收益率因子的推断远远超出观察到的数据需要谨慎.
- 这项研究提供了宝贵的见解,用于基于奶牛的奶频率来建模奶牛的哺乳产量.
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