在时间变化的驾驶方式下,驾驶员如何应对后端风险:使用具有平均值和差异异性的模型进行时间不稳定性测试
Guilong Xu1, Zhen Yang1, Jinfeng Ying1
1The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering, Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China; College of Transportation, Tongji University, 4800 Cao'an Highway, Shanghai 201804, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|November 12, 2025
概括
司机根据不断变化的驾驶风格和交通状况,在汽车追踪中动态调整他们的风险反应. 了解这些时间变化的行为是先进的驾驶辅助系统和自动驾驶汽车的关键.
科学领域:
- 交通安全 交通安全
- 驾驶过程中的人类因素
- 自主系统 自主系统
背景情况:
- 驾驶员的风险应对机制对于汽车追踪行为至关重要,但往往过于简单化.
- 以前的研究未能解释时间变化的驾驶风格及其对风险感知的影响.
- 影响动态风格下的风险响应的上下文交通因素仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究驾驶员如何修改他们对后方碰撞风险的反应,随着驾驶风格随着时间的推移而变化.
- 确定影响这些动态风险响应调整的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用先进的多驾驶模拟平台收集汽车跟踪数据.
- 应用了带有新型度指标的光谱聚类来识别五种不同的,时间变化的驾驶风格 (15秒间隔).
- 使用潜在安全危险指数 (PSHI-1) 量化了后部碰撞风险,并通过斯皮尔曼相关性分析了风险反应模式.
- 使用名义和连续特征 (SMOTE-NC) 的合成少数人过量采样技术进行数据平衡.
- 估计了一个随机参数多项逻辑模型来分析跨样式的贡献因素.
主要成果:
- 确定了五种不同的驾驶风格,参数估计有显著的时间变化.
- 发现驾驶员特征,领先车辆 (LV) 变量,后续车辆 (FV) 变量及其相互作用显著影响风险应对选择.
- 风险响应机制的时间不稳定性得到证实,突出显示了驾驶员行为的动态性.
结论:
- 司机的风险应对机制本质上是动态的,并受到不断变化的驾驶风格的影响.
- 准确的建模需要考虑时间变化的驾驶风格及其与交通环境的相互作用.
- 这些发现对于开发更有效的实时安全系统 (例如,高级驾驶辅助系统 (ADAS)) 和类似人类的自动驾驶汽车 (HAV) 至关重要.
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