在丹麦妇女中使用修改的BOADICEA模型预测乳腺癌风险
Sif Ingibergsdóttir Novitski1,2, Rikke Louise Jacobsen3, Timo Röder1,2
1Translational Disease Systems Biology, Novo Nordisk Center for Protein Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
British journal of cancer
|November 12, 2025
概括
更新的BOADICEA乳腺癌风险模型准确地预测了使用遗传,生活方式和乳腺癌密度因素的风险. 这种经过验证的模型可以识别高风险个体,改善乳腺癌查策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 预测乳腺癌风险对临床实践至关重要.
- BOADICEA模型得到了增强,包括遗传变异,生活方式/荷尔蒙因素和乳房扫描密度 (MD).
研究的目的:
- 在大型队列中验证修改后的BOADICEA风险模型.
- 评估模型在5年和10年内预测乳腺癌风险的准确性.
主要方法:
- 这项研究对49494名丹麦妇女进行了长达10年的随访.
- 经过修改的BOADICEA风险是使用多基因风险得分,生活方式因素和MD (在子集中) 来计算的.
- 用校准,AUC,C指数,灵敏度和特异性来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 5年模型显示所有女性的AUC为0.80,50-69岁的AUC为0.61.
- 高风险预测 (前50%) 在5年内确定了94.8%的乳腺癌病例.
- 10年模型在50-69岁之间实现了0.46的灵敏度.
结论:
- 经过修改的BOADICEA风险模型在一个大规模的丹麦队列中证明了有效的风险预测.
- 更新后的模型显示了改善乳腺癌风险分层和临床管理的前景.
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