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气候变化对罗马尼亚Hamatocaulis vernicosus的预计影响
Sorin Ștefănuț1, Claudia Biță-Nicolae1, Tiberiu Sahlean1
1Institute of Biology Bucharest, Romanian Academy, 296 Splaiul Independenței, P.O. Box 56-53, 060031 Bucharest, Romania.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 13, 2025
概括
一种易受伤害的 Hamatocaulis vernicosus 面临着由于气候变化造成的大量范围丧失. 保护工作必须专注于预测适合这种泥炭地物种的息地.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 瘤学 瘤学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 哈马托卡乌利斯 (Hamatocaulis vernicosus) 是一种欧洲的,受到保护的关注,在欧盟息地指令下列在欧盟息地指令中,在罗马尼亚是脆弱的.
- 尽管该物种处于保护地位,但在罗马尼亚,该物种的记录不足,许多适合的泥炭地息地尚未被调查.
- 过渡沼泽和震动沼泽生态系统 (NATURA 2000代码:7140) 支持H. vernicosus,其特点是潮湿的,有的到中的条件 (pH5.0-7.5).
研究的目的:
- 评估罗马尼亚目前Hamatocaulis vernicosus的分布情况.
- 在未来的气候变化场景下,为H. vernicosus建模合适的息地.
- 为H. vernicosus及其相关的泥炭地生态系统的有针对性的保护规划提供见解.
主要方法:
- 现场调查证实了罗马尼亚大陆和阿尔卑斯山生物区域的15个H. vernicosus的位置 (10个现有,5个新).
- 使用集合模型的物种分布建模 (SDM) 预测了合适的息地.
- 气候变化预测 (SSP245,SSP585) 用于预测范围的变化和碎片化.
主要成果:
- H. vernicosus的分布主要受到年平均温度和温度范围的影响,有利于寒冷,稳定的气候和高降雨量.
- SDM显示出良好的预测性表现 (AUC 0.79-0.83;TSS 0.54-0.59). 这是一个很好的预测.
- 气候模型预测H. vernicosus的范围将大幅减少:到2050年将减少约30%,到2100年将减少约40-60%,并增加碎片化,特别是在东卡尔帕蒂亚和南卡尔帕蒂亚之间.
结论:
- 目前记录地区的增加反映了加强的调查努力,而不是改善的保护状况.
- 气候变化对H. vernicosus构成严重威胁,预计将导致范围的大幅缩减和息地碎片化.
- 将现场数据与预测建模相结合,对于H. vernicosus及其重要的泥炭地息地进行有效的保护策略至关重要.
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