使用可解释的机器学习模型预测混凝土的压力
Hainan Fu1, Xiong Zhou2, Pengfei Xu1,2
1Shield and Underground Engineering Research Institute, China Railway 15th Bureau Group Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200070, China.
Materials (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 13, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种先进的机器学习方法,用于预测混凝土的压力强度,优于传统方法. 加上可解释性的 CatBoost 模型为混凝土混合物设计提供了一个精确而实用的工具.
科学领域:
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 准确预测混凝土的压力强度对于结构完整性和质量控制至关重要.
- 现有的经验公式与混凝土混合设计固有的复杂,非线性关系作斗争.
- 机器学习为模拟这些复杂的交互提供了一个强大的替代方案.
研究的目的:
- 开发和比较可解释的机器学习模型,用于预测混凝土的压力强度.
- 确定影响混凝土强度的关键因素及其相互作用.
- 为优化混凝土混合物比例提供数据驱动工具.
主要方法:
- 利用梯度增强树木,随机森林和反向传播神经网络.
- 在超参数调整中使用贝叶斯优化.
- 应用SHAP (夏普利添加式解释) 分析,以确定特征的重要性和可解释性.
- 在223套混凝土压缩试验数据上训练并验证模型.
主要成果:
- CatBoost模型表现出优异的预测性能,其R2为0.9388,RMSE为2.7131 MPa,MAPE为5.45%.
- SHAP分析显示,水含量是最有影响力的因素,其次是水含量,减水剂,飞灰和聚合物.
- 在特定场景中,CatBoost模型显著超过了行业标准的经验公式.
结论:
- 可解释机器学习,特别是CatBoost模型,为预测混凝土压力强度提供了高度准确和可靠的方法.
- 通过SHAP分析了解特征贡献,可以通过数据驱动优化混凝土混合设计.
- 这种方法为提高工程设计和混凝土施工质量保证提供了有价值的工具.
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