在加速退化中处理多源不确定性 通过基于Wiener的强大的建模方案来处理加速退化.
Hua Tu1, Xiuli Wang2,3, Yang Li1
1School of Mechatronic Engineering and Automation, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China.
Sensors (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 13, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一个强大的维纳过程框架,以改进加速寿命建模. 新方法通过解决降解变化和外部干扰,提高了预测可靠性.
科学领域:
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 加速生命周期建模面临复杂退化,有限数据和外部因素的挑战.
- 现有的方法在与单位对单位的变化和外部扰动作斗争,影响预测准确性.
研究的目的:
- 为准确的加速生命周期建模和预测开发一个强大的框架.
- 为了应对异质降解,有限样本和外部干扰的挑战.
主要方法:
- 一个基于维纳过程的框架,包含随机效应结构的可变性.
- 基于间隔的推断来处理采样限制.
- 一个混合估计器 (Huber损失 + Metropolis-Hastings) 减轻外部影响.
- 量化压力参数链接,以将加速测试数据转移到正常条件.
主要成果:
- 与传统方法相比,该框架提供了更稳定的参数推断.
- 终身预测的可靠性得到了提高.
- 对连接器应力松数据的验证证实了该方法的有效性.
结论:
- 拟议的维纳过程框架为复杂的加速生命周期建模提供了强大的解决方案.
- 这种方法提高了工程应用中的预测的准确性和可靠性.
- 该方法有效地处理单元变化和外部干扰,以便更好地预测寿命.
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