广泛引用的全球灌统计数据缺乏经验支持
Arnald Puy1, Seth N Linga1, Nanxin Wei1
1School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, United Kingdom.
PNAS nexus
|November 13, 2025
概括
灌农业 灌农业
科学领域:
- 可持续性科学 可持续性科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人们普遍认为,灌农业对于全球粮食和水安全至关重要.
- 这一观点经常得到支持,据称灌占作物生产的40%和淡水提取的70%.
研究的目的:
- 调查广泛引用的关于灌农业对全球粮食和水安全贡献的数据的经验支持.
- 分析这些说法在可持续性科学文献中的传播.
主要方法:
- 网络引用分析3,500个可持续性科学文件.
- 追踪引用路径以评估支持有关灌影响的关键主张的数据.
主要成果:
- 人们普遍相信灌的重要作用,但缺乏强有力的经验支持.
- 60-80%的引用路径导致没有支持数据或引用数据的来源.
- 灌对全球作物生产和取水的实际贡献高度不确定,分别为18-50%和45-90%.
结论:
- 可持续性科学中的基本主张需要严格的经验评估.
- 承认和接受不确定性对于强有力的研究和有效的可持续发展政策制定至关重要.
- 通常引用的关于灌农业影响的统计数据没有充分的支持,并掩盖了重大不确定性.
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