了解生物制药投资决策:国会预算办公室的模型与投资者洞察力相比如何?
Matthias P Hofer1, Priscila Radu1, Mikel Berdud1
1Office of Health Economics, London SE1 2HB, United Kingdom.
国会预算办公室 (CBO) 对药物开发创新的模型可能不准确地反映现实世界生物制药投资决策. 投资者采访表明,该模型需要改进,以有效地告知政策.
科学领域:
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
- 制药政策 制药政策
- 生物制药创新 生物制药创新
背景情况:
- 国会预算办公室 (CBO) 开发了一个模型来评估政策对生物制药收入和创新的影响.
- 生物制药投资是复杂的,政策制定者不太了解.
- 现有的模型可能过于简化了药物开发投资的现实.
研究的目的:
- 评估CBO药物开发模型在反映实际投资决策过程中的充分性.
- 将CBO模型与生物制药行业的现实投资者前景进行比较.
主要方法:
- 与来自风险资本,私募股权,企业风险资本和生物制药公司的投资者进行了半结构化采访.
- 收集了对影响药物开发投资决策的因素的见解.
主要成果:
- 投资者采访表明,CBO的模型没有充分捕捉生物制药投资决策的复杂性.
- 模型假设与行业实践之间存在重大差异.
结论:
- 目前的CBO模式可能不足以为与生物制药创新相关的政策决策提供信息.
- 纳入投资者的利益相关者的意见对于提高模型的准确性和实用性至关重要.
- 需要完善模型,以更好地反映药物开发投资的细微差别.
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