初级肝癌的特定年龄模式和趋势:全球发病率分析
Yi Li1, Chengnan Guo1,2, Haili Wang1
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety (Fudan University), Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
肝癌仍然是全球卫生负担,以后发病病例占主导地位. 在发达地区,早期发病的肝癌,特别是肝内胆管癌,正在增加,需要针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肝癌是一个重大的全球健康挑战.
- 年龄是理解肝癌影响的关键因素.
- 这项研究检查了儿童,早期发病和晚期发病的肝癌的发病率模式.
研究的目的:
- 分析目前的肝癌发病率模式在三个年龄组:童年 (0-14岁),早期发病 (15-49岁) 和晚期发病 (≥50岁).
- 评估2003年至2017年肝癌发病率的时间趋势.
- 根据人口变化,预测未来的肝癌病例数.
主要方法:
- 利用GLOBOCAN数据库对2022年发病率数据进行分析,按性别,地区,人类发展指数 (HDI) 和国家进行分析.
- 五大洲的就业癌症发生率加上肝癌和亚型的每年发生率趋势 (2003-2017) 的数据库.
- 应用估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC) 来评估趋势和人口预测,以预测未来的情况.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,晚期发病的肝癌新增病例数量最高 (752,736例),其次是早期发病 (108,758例) 和儿童 (4642例).
- 晚期发病和儿童肝癌的年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 在高HDI国家更高,而早期发病的肝癌ASIR在低HDI国家更高.
- 在全球晚期发病的肝癌和发达地区早期发病的肝癌 (特别是肝内胆管癌) 中,观察到ASIR显著增加的趋势;儿童肝癌ASIR在南美男性中增加.
结论:
- 晚期发病的肝癌继续给全球健康带来巨大的负担.
- 在高度发达地区,早期发病的肝癌,特别是肝内胆管癌的增加显而易见.
- 针对特定人群的量身定制的预防和临床策略是必不可少的,考虑到当地卫生优先事项.
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