揭示土地覆盖和极端气候对美国野火烟雾PM2.5的影响,使用可解释的人工智能
Yun Liu1, Yanni Cao1, Qixiang Chen2
1Division of Environmental Health Sciences, College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, United States.
Environmental science & technology
|November 13, 2025
概括
野火烟雾细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 暴露是由气候极端因素,如高温和干旱,受土地覆盖的影响. 了解这些因素对于有针对性的烟雾减缓策略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 野火烟雾细颗粒物 (PM2.5) 在美国对环境健康构成重大风险.
- 在影响PM2.5暴露的气候极端和土地覆盖之间的相互作用尚未得到充分理解.
研究的目的:
- 通过检查气候和土地覆盖因素来调查野火烟雾PM2.5暴露的驱动因素.
- 开发和应用一个综合框架,结合统计和机器学习方法.
主要方法:
- 利用了2010-2018年的人口普查区级数据.
- 使用时间序列分析,多级回归和XGBoost与SHapley添加式扩展 (SHAP).
主要成果:
- 温度升高,干旱和降水量低始终在PM2.5增加之前,特别是在美国西部和北部.
- 土地覆盖的影响在区域上有所不同,受燃料可用性和景观异质性的影响.
- XGBoost-SHAP模型表现出高预测精度 (R2=0.77-0.87) 并突出了干旱放大等复合驱动因素日益重要的重要性.
结论:
- 极端气候和土地覆盖面是关键的,是野火烟雾PM2.5暴露的相互作用驱动因素.
- 这些发现需要适应性,地理特定的缓解策略,考虑到不断变化的气候和陆地影响.
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