指示参与者随机分配患者治疗和未治疗的情况并不能减少因果错觉
Ainoa Barreiro1, Javier Rodríguez-Ferreiro1, Itxaso Barberia1
1Grup de Recerca en Cognició i Llenguatge (GRECIL), Departament de Cognició, Desenvolupament i Psicologia de l'Educació, Secció Processos Cognitius, Institut de Neurociències (UBneuro), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain.
Royal Society open science
|November 14, 2025
概括
人们经常错误地看到无关事件之间的因果关系. 澄清实验中的随机分配并没有减少这些因果错觉,这表明存在更深层次的认知偏见.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 因果推理因果推理
- 决策 决策 决策 决策
背景情况:
- 人类经常感知因果关系,即使事件没有因果关系.
- 评估偶然性需要控制其他因果因素,这在学习任务中经常被忽视的原则.
- 以前的研究表明,人们可能不认为其他因果力在偶然学习过程中是恒定的.
研究的目的:
- 调查关于随机分配的明确指令是否可以减少因果错觉.
- 探索考虑替代原因在因果错觉的发展中的作用.
主要方法:
- 进行了两次操作任务指令的实验.
- 参与者要么明确地被告知关于随机分配的假定原因,要么没有.
- 第二个实验详细阐述了随机分配对控制替代原因的影响.
主要成果:
- 随机分配方面的指令操纵没有显著影响因果错觉的强度 (最低BF01 = 5.853).
- 对因果错觉的敏感性与对替代因果力的不充分考虑相关.
- 容易产生因果错觉的个体倾向于在存在或不存在假定原因的情况下重视结果的概率.
结论:
- 关于随机分配的明确指示并不能减轻标准应急学习中的因果错觉.
- 因果错觉与未能正确考虑其他解释的失败有关.
- 在评估结果概率时的认知偏见有助于形成错误的因果信念.
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