在COVID-19大流行期间,德国过度死亡率的区域模式:国家一级分析分析
Christof Kuhbandner1, Matthias Reitzner2
1Department of Human Sciences, University of Regensburg, Regensburg, Germany.
Royal Society open science
|November 14, 2025
概括
在COVID-19期间,德国的过度死亡率因地区而异,并在第三年急剧增加. 较高的疫苗接种率意外与过度死亡率的增加相关,需要进一步调查.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,COVID-19大流行带来了重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 了解过度死亡率模式对于评估流行病影响和医疗保健系统负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计COVID-19流行病的前三年德国联邦州的过度死亡率.
- 分析区域趋势和与州级指标的关联,包括政策,疫苗接种和社会经济因素.
主要方法:
- 使用严格的精算方法来计算过度死亡率.
- 统计分析检查了过度死亡率和各种州级指标之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 过度死亡率在第一年显示中等水平和区域差异,在第二年略有增加,稳定模式.
- 第三年,过度死亡率急剧上升,区域差异减少,受影响最严重的州发生了转变.
- 较高的疫苗接种率与过度死亡率的增加和COVID-19死亡/病例死亡率的降低有关,即使在调整后.
结论:
- 一个新的过度死亡率驱动器在流行病的第三年出现.
- 疫苗接种率和过度死亡率之间的意想不到的相关性需要紧急调查潜在的意外影响或其他被忽视的因素.
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