在尼泊尔的气候变化场景下,模拟雪 (Panthera uncia) 当前和未来的息地适应性
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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Meghajan Budha1, Jharana Karki1, Barsha Khadka1
1Department of Environmental Science GoldenGate International College, Tribhuvan University Kathmandu Nepal.
Ecology and evolution
|November 14, 2025
概括
尼泊尔的雪 (Panthera uncia) 息地受到气候变化的威胁,保护区以外的脆弱地区面临严重的下降. 保护工作必须超越当前的保护区 (PA),包括生态走廊和适应气候变化的规划.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 雪 (Panthera uncia) 是一个对高海拔生态系统完整性至关重要的顶级捕食者.
- 它的息地主要位于中亚和南亚的山区.
- 了解其息地分布对于有效的保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟尼泊尔雪目前和未来的潜在息地分布.
- 确定影响雪息地适宜性的关键环境预测因素.
- 评估雪息地在气候变化情景下的脆弱性,特别是关于保护区 (PA).
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt算法进行物种分布建模 (SDM).
- 汇编了306个雪的出现记录.
- 选择五个生物气候变量和四个环境变量 (例如温度,海拔) 来建模息地适应性.
主要成果:
- 尼泊尔大约五分之一的土地面积适合雪,其中大部分位于PA.
- 年度平均温度和海拔高度是最有影响力的因素,最佳条件在-5°C至5°C和4000-4500米以上之间.
- 气候预测表明息地收缩,特别是在PA以外,在高排放场景下大幅下降.
结论:
- 现有的保护区 (PA) 提供了一些弹性,但在这些网络之外预计会有重大息地丧失.
- 迫切需要扩大适应性保护战略,包括生态走廊.
- 这项研究强调了未受保护息地的脆弱性和当前保护方法的局限性.
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