人口老龄化对中国江省肺结核负担的影响:一项基于人口的研究
Yuxiao Ling1, Wei Wang2,3, Songhua Chen2,3
1School of Public Health, Health Science Center, Ningbo University, Ningbo, Zhejiang, China.
Frontiers in public health
|November 14, 2025
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 老年学是一门学科.
背景情况:
- 中国人口快速老龄化是一个重大的公共卫生挑战.
- 与衰老相关的疾病负担不断增加,需要集中研究.
- 肺结核 (PTB) 仍然是这个人口变化中的一个问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估人口老龄化对肺结核 (PTB) 发病率的影响.
- 分析江省PTB通报率的趋势.
- 量化人口因素对PTB发病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 对2005年至2022年PTB报告的发病率数据的分析.
- 使用指数回归模型 (2023-2035) 预测未来的PTB发病率.
- 应用分解算法来确定人口老龄化,增长和年龄特定发病率的影响.
主要成果:
- 江省的PTB发病率在2005年至2022年间从每10万人口中的93.5下降到每10万人口中的33.99.
- 在60岁及以上的个体中观察到PTB发病率最高,人口中可归因的比例上升.
- 虽然整体PTB病例减少了,但人口增长和年龄结构的变化导致病例增加,但因年龄特定发病率显著下降而抵消.
结论:
- 江的PTB发病率预计将下降,但可能受到人口结构变化的影响,特别是在老年人中.
- 加强公共卫生措施对于实现到2035年终结结核病战略目标至关重要.
- 建议在老年人群中加强PTB查.
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